Application of GARCH models in the volatility of food inflation in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper aimed to investigate the behavior of the current food inflation volatility arising from the recent past behavior and to know if this volatility is persistent over time in Nigeria. The study covered the period from 2003M1 to 2021M9 under both the asymmetric and the symmetric GARCH models. The findings of the study revealed that one period lag of food inflation had a positive and significant impact on the current value of food inflation. Furthermore, it was found that in all the selected models, volatility in food inflation is persistent and bad news had an impact on food volatility in two of the models, while good news had an impact in one model. However, the asymmetric coefficient in all the asymmetric models is not significant. Consequently, the study contends that policymakers should factor in the impact of recent past values of inflation when framing policies meant to tame food inflation in Nigeria.

Keywords: Asymmetric models, GARCH models, inflation, volatility;